Early Signs of Financial Crises

author: Siew Ann Cheong, School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University
published: July 10, 2009,   recorded: June 2009,   views: 3272
Categories

Related content

Report a problem or upload files

If you have found a problem with this lecture or would like to send us extra material, articles, exercises, etc., please use our ticket system to describe your request and upload the data.
Enter your e-mail into the 'Cc' field, and we will keep you updated with your request's status.
Lecture popularity: You need to login to cast your vote.
  Delicious Bibliography

Description

For most diseases, it is always better to medically intervene earlier compared to later. This is because treatment at an early stage is generally more effective, and less expensive. The same is probably true for economies and financial markets. In the current global financial crisis, we have seen billions of dollars sunk into relief and stimulus packages, with hardly any positive result to show for the effort. The reason is clear: these intervention measures are too late. To implement more effective, and less costly economic and fiscal policies, it is important to detect the onset of a financial crisis early. At the same time, we do not want excessive reactions, when the market has merely caught a ’cold’. In this talk, I will describe recent work, based on the statistical segmentation and clustering analysis of financial time series data, that points to characteristic early signs prior to financial crises, characteristic early signs prior to a true recovery, and the characteristic time scales involved for both processes. By looking into a period that covers both the current crisis, as well as the most recent past crisis, we also hope to learn lessons on which intervention measures are effective, and which intervention measures are not.

Link this page

Would you like to put a link to this lecture on your homepage?
Go ahead! Copy the HTML snippet !

Write your own review or comment:

make sure you have javascript enabled or clear this field: