The coupling of strain evolution and disease dynamics
author: Stefan Wieland,
Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciencia
published: Oct. 15, 2008, recorded: September 2008, views: 2861
published: Oct. 15, 2008, recorded: September 2008, views: 2861
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Description
Influenza A is characterized by seasonal outbreaks and a gradual genetic, yet discontinuous antigenic evolution (antigenic "cluster jumps" occuring every 4-7 years, with a large seasonal epidemic as a result of lacking immunity among the population).The interplay between viral mutations and an age-group-specific human immune response is modelled here, trying to account for the observed phenomena and to predict next season's epidemic strain from the dynamics of the previous year.
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