Disks are among the most frequently failing components in today’s IT environments. Despite a set of defense mechanisms such as RAID, the availability and reliability of the system are still often impacted severely.

In this paper, we present a highly accurate SMART-based analysis pipeline that can correctly predict the necessity of a disk replacement even 10-15 days in advance. Our method has been built and evaluated on more than 30000 disks from two major manufacturers, monitored over 17 months. Our approach employs statistical techniques to automatically detect which SMART parameters correlate with disk replacement and uses them to predict the replacement of a disk with even 98% accuracy.