Life Expectancy In Developed Countries May Grow Much Higher Than Anticipated Even If Mortality Conditions Stay Constant

recorded by: Department of Intelligent Systems
author: Dalkhat M. Ediev, Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences
published: Nov. 17, 2011,   recorded: October 2011,   views: 63
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Both the centuries-long tradition of conventional lifespan indicators and the more recent criticism to them ignore the true exposures of individuals to prevailing mortality levels. These exposures form a genuine part of a more comprehensive picture of the prevailing mortality conditions. In low-mortality countries, our estimated duration of human life exceeds the conventional estimates by 15 years. Our theory implies that mortality dynamics are characterised by a considerable inertia. This is used to develop new methods of forecasting, leading to a more optimistic outlook for future mortality.

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